Fall Over Parade

I find it possibly amazing that Gerald Wallace is in the All-Star Game and Josh Smith should be. We did it. We made it. Our choices have been just. Note: I forgot Durant was a first-time All-Star yesterday because, in my mind, he's been on since Texas. Say that what you will about my love with this game.

Oh wait, Josh Smith didn't get in, it stings me right down to the bone, and you can read all about my feelings and history's folly (committed upon its own head, no less), in this precious column of mine.

I ended up cutting a paragraph that might have been all figurative economics too dry for those parts, so I lay it here. Or at least its essence. Think about this: It took time for hs-ers and Euros (in the wake of KG and Dirk) to become automatic presences in the high lottery. There was still a little bit of lingering skepticism, or at least hesitance. And these were the consensus best few teens the world had to offer. Thus, in theory, in the beginning there was a de facto cap placed on what hs/Euro picks made it in. It was only the cream of the crop, those generally agreed upon as the "next KG" or "next Dirk."

However, it didn't stop there. Once these players moved all the way to the top, the floodgates were opened for the "Maybe Next KG" and "Possibly Maybe Next Dirk." This is how you got Josh Howard and David West going at the end of the first round; high school/Euro picks weren't boom-or-bust by nature, they were made to look this way by a willingness to, in effect, scrape the barrel and push the very logic that had made teams pursue them in the first place. The best ones were gambles on great potential, which had built into it some sense of security. It was much more like the risk built into drafting a college player, just with a different form of assurance. The latter ones gambled without any safety net.

This description is remarkably inexact. But what would have happened if teams had never decided to cross that line and go from the relatively safe teens to those with less and less to recommend them as solid pros? When people talk about some sort of committee that would decide when a player could jump from high school, it seems like what they're really talking about is this alternate reality where all these other prospects never snuck in the cracked door on account of equivocation.

You've Got The Look!

I always thought these things came out after the draft, but here these are. Okay, so maybe they always come out beforehand; perhaps I didn't notice until this year because so much is unsettled, so many players looking to define themselves amidst the din, that such images matter more than usual. Anyway, here's my cursory do/don't take on these, with apologies to Billups:



For someone so gangly on the court, Thabeet, unlike most seven-footers, sure knows how to look natural in the suit. He also has a face that looks like it could be put on a normal-sized person, a big plus when it comes to centers seeming human. The guy even shrugs and grins naturally, effortlessly, in a way that puts you at ease. This is wholesome point guard territory, not the usual awkward weirdo introvert.Counterbalance all that on-court scouting, now no one will whisper when he goes top three. For hell's sake, what other big man can drape a sweater over his shoulders without looking like a demonic scarecrow?



Everyone else is trying to tell us who they are, or really are, or want us to think they really are, with these shots. Ricky Ricky could give a fuck less about that. This is all about "how will I like in a fashion shoot" or "am I paparazzi worthy," maybe even "imagine this billboard over Times Square." Because see, Rubio isn't a person, he's an icon, a cute little sensation waiting to, however briefly, make an NBA city feel like it's the center of the basketball world. If that ugly-ass dude who is always on the Clippers could bag a model, imagine what kind of arm-candy this guy will come up with? You other kids get sneaker contracts; he's busy moving Armani.



Life is all about stark contrasts. Here's Rubio's arch-rival, humorless, smile-less, and without frivolity, dressed up just enough to show you he knows he, dressed down to show you he will roll up those sleeves and get to work. That expression says STRICTLY BUSINESS, and he's even hiding the ball in a non-flamboyant way. "My name is Brandon, and I control the rock." This shot also makes you believe he's just a weird-looking dude, not a teen still growing into his face. It's all gaze, no market, just the portrait of a player who wants respect. Which is overdoing it, of course, since this shit about him falling to #20 is just a Masonic conspiracy.



They say Jrue Holiday isn't ready. They say he only looks good on paper. The answer? Make him look a very sensitive golem emerging from a long lunch break in the void of un-being. I hope that's a satisfactory explanation.



Jordan Hill is just trying to figure it all out.



You know the ultimate mark of either a very young athlete or a total mama's boy? When they can't rock an outfit without looking like someone else picked it out for them. It also doesn't help that DeRozan, who is going to get drafted based on athleticism, looks like he's running for student body president of Dead Person University. No color? No expression but that wan grin? I don't even believe this guy can move. Or maybe I'm reading it all wrong, and that's the point: Seriousness and composure, to preempt all the "jump out the gym" talk. Even something resembling a wrap-around pass. Hidden secrets. Unknown pleasures. Whatever the last Joy Division album is called.



First of all, I own that same outfit. But not the socks. I like the socks, and think that's the next frontier of NBA fashion. That said, Curry looks perfectly comfortable and convincing until you get to the point of contact between his hand and the ball. NOT A GOOD SIGN. If he's going to be anything more than a friendly catch-and-shoot fella, he could at least look like he sometimes takes the ball out at night and does tricks in front of the mirror. . . in that outfit. That's what the people want.



Does Hansbrough mean to be wearing exactly what Adam Morrison rocked in 2006?

Collapse in Reverse

Read the official FD Mock!

You don't need to warn me about the perils of drafting based on potential—what it seems like a player might be able to do one day. I have both been seduced by, and gotten endless mileage out of, this rotting cliche of NBA scouting. There's a distinction to be made, which I've done several times and don't feel like doing again, between "might be able to do" and "could be the kind of player who might be able to do." But while the latter is more immediately compelling, it's not like the former is more empirically sound, just not so utterly Romantic or suspended in a dream-like state not unlike religious conversion.

So it is with great trepidation that I seek to advance a serious scouting theory based on a hypothetical. However, since seeing that Brandon Jennings Euromix, I've been thinking about a line I've heard, and read, in several places: roughly, "there's just no one else in the draft who can do the things he can." The legend of Ricky Rubio aside, Jennings's slippery, high-speed trickery with the ball is an asset that just can't be ignored. Jennings is accused of showboating, streetball, next Marbury, and all the usual. But as a passer and facilitator, Jenning's game isn't bullshit, it's the kind of Nash/Paul skill that could pull together an entire offense in this PG-friendly (or -centric, you choose) era. And Jennings doesn't merely have great vision. When it comes to this one, rarefied aspect of the game, he can hang with anyone in the league.



If you don't believe me, ask Stephen Curry, speaking to Chris over at The Baseline:

CL: Tell me what you thought of Jennings. Everywhere he's going, he seems to be leaving a trail of fire, one way or another, like what he said about Rubio for example. Tell me what he was like as a player and what he was like as a person.

SC: As a player, he's very quick. You don't know exactly what he's going to do. He's got an unconventional style about him where you think he's going one way and he'll throw back between the legs and go another way. He's tough to guard because he keeps his dribble active and looks for open spots on the floor. He definitely is a solid point guard. I think his season in Italy really helped him develop going against physical guys.

CL: Did Jennings remind you of that you've seen?

SC: No, he plays different than anyone I've seen before.

CL: What makes him unique?

SC: His creativity with the ball. He's always moving. Even without the ball, he's just always active on the floor. When we were doing 3-on-3 drills he'd do the Steve Nash dribble from one side of the court, underneath the basket, to the other and do a turn around. He's a great passer, so you've got to stay in front of him

I know I shouldn't take the word of a player I'm not so high on. And as Henry noted, Jennings still has major holes. However, this is exactly the point I'm after here. Jennings isn't a gaseous cloud of could-be, nor a good young player whose past offers a template for future success. He's both more and less than each of these. In some ways, he's the best PG in the draft; in others, one of the shakiest, a project needing not only technical tutelage, but some basic help getting in tune with the pro game. The level of competition in Europe may be higher in the NCAA, and it helped Jennings grow up; at the same time, is there any question this kid's recent history leaves him with a lot to work through on the court?

But again, that brilliance with the ball, the total unpredictability and idiosyncracy Curry refers to. Yes, it could lead him to self-destruct. As of now, though, it's an enormous asset, at least one facet of what it takes to be a first-tier PG. I want to compare it to drafting Thabeet on the basis of his shot-blocking, and yet this isn't about a specialist. It's about a player with a gift, one that, if a team's ready to look past or committ to sanding down the rough edges, could be the basis of not just an All-Star, but a dynamic team. This is exactly why point guards can be the new franchise these days.



I like Evans, and he's ready right now. But he's not precocious, ahead of and behind himself, like Jennings. Rubio, who knows. At this point, it's impossible to separate his actual ability from the rhetoric (no, not "hype"), a lot of which is glib and contradictory. I don't blame him for not working out, but that's keeping us from getting the same measure of how he stacks up against other prospects. Please, discuss the Olympics below. However, regardles of what Rubio is or isn't, people seem either sold or not sold on him. Everyone agrees on Jennings. The question is whether you take a player on the assumption that from one great thing, other good things will inevitably follow.

FreeDrafto #6.545245: We'll Always Have Promises

FD kicks off its draft coverage by looking forward in order to look forward to looking back. Like, awards we hope we'll be able to give out one day. Participants: Brown Recluse, Joey Litman, Tom Ziller, Ty Keenan, and yours truly.

Least Likely to Dunk in a Game: Jeff Adrien. Dude could barely finish in traffic when he was playing against other 6'6" power forwards. Now what's going to happen? In a ceremony held before the show, Jeff was also named Most Likely to Be Tyler Hansbrough. It was an upset.

Next Russell Westbrook: Rodrique Beaubois. Post-Pietrus (both We Believe and now), where is France in FD Geographical Rankings? Behind Germany (Dirk, Anthony Randolph, Donte Greene) surely.

Most Likely to Pull an MJ and Quit to Play Beach Volleyball: Chase Budinger. Remember this post?

Most Likely to Be the Bill Clinton of the NBA: Chase Budinger. Higher vert than DeRozan! And unlike Brent Barry, he's not insufferable. As a warm-up to All-Star weekend H-O-R-S-E, we need a Budinger/Joe Alexander pit-jumping contest.

Most Likely to Become Julian Wright: Earl Clark. Tall, multi-faceted swingman who can't shoot. Should get taken by a fairly deep team and waste away on the bench.

Most Likely to Surprise Everyone By Being White: Nando de Colo.

Most Blazerly Player Not on the Blazers: Stephen Curry. Seriously, will someone please draft Curry and trade him for Jerryd Bayless? His light-skinneded nice guy-ness belongs in Portland. (NOTE: It was all a dream. . . )

Most Likely to Be Involved in an Unfortunate Off-Court Incident: DeMar DeRozan. I'm just sayin', the signs aren't good.

Most Likely to be the Barack Obama of Utah: Wayne Ellington. Not the western frontiersman that Karl Malone was (or is, as he's likely shooting at something out the back of his 18-wheeler right now), Wayne is, instead, the sort of mainstream (UNC-bred) African-American made for Utah: articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. He's also the sort of system scorer who could thrive in Utah, where NBADraft.net is projecting he winds up.



Most Next O.J. Mayo-y: Tyreke Evans. Both have some point guard skills, but really should not be playing that position in the NBA. He's wired to score and will average 20 at some point in his career, if not next year, but still, I'm not seeing a lot of All-Star games in his future.

Most Likely to Suffer Because of Everyone's Socio-Cultural Baggage: Tyreke Evans. I find it inspiring, and bound for disaster, that Evans is rocketing up draft boards. He went to Memphis, has PG credentials based on part of a college season, is William Wesley-related, come from a place where the basketball courts barely work, has a crazy name, and likes to dribble. Are scouts just the most tolerant, color-blind, unencumbered folks in the biz?

Most Likely to Represent Blue/Red State Divide: Tyler Hansbrough. When I went to see the Tar Heels play Valpo back in December, a friend and fellow UNC alum asked me if I would ever wear a Hansbrough jersey in public. I replied in the negative, a conclusion with which he agreed. There's nothing cool about the guy, but I've always liked players like Haslem and Millsap, and that's who Hansbrough is in the NBA. Verdict: Moderately FreeDarko.

Most Likely to Miss His T-Shirt: James Harden. Played so within the flow at ASU that you wondered whether he had a mental block on taking over games, to the point where his undershirt took on the significance of a security blanket. In the pros, he might need to wear three headbands to compensate.

Most Likely to Be Tall: Jordan Hill.

Most Likely to Make Bilas Eject Spittle When Chosen Lottery, Other Than Brandon Jennings, Which is Really Too Fucking Obvious: Jrue Holiday.

Most Assonant Name: Damion James

Most Likely to Develop a Cult Following: Damion James. Many players eligible for outsized mythology--justifiable or not--will go in the lottery, and there's nothing cult about that. But James has spent his career on the periphery of our general consciousness, seemingly imprisoned by what he could accomplish were he to figure out what he's meant to be doing. Bang or slash? Diversify or specialize? He will show flashes, especially if he gets to reunite with KD and make it thunder, and that may have the internets going nuts.

Most Likely to Birth His Own Zen Koan: Brandon Jennings. If experts scoff at Jennings's stint overseas, saying he's going where he would've after a year at college, but the kid's obviously gotten better, does it matter where he ends up going?



Best Point Guard in the Draft who has Never Played Professional Basketball in Europe: Ty Lawson. He's like a sturdier TJ Ford who, because he doesn't try to dunk on people, has a much lower likelihood of spinal cord damage.

Least Likely to Be Drafted by the Knicks: Ty Lawson. A point guard who can't be kept out of the lane, pushes the tempo, hits free throws, is a born leader, and has a reasonable jumper? Makes too much sense. Perversely, he would have been more likely to be chosen were Isiah Thomas still in charge.

Most Likely to Kill My Draft Night Buzz: B.J. Mullens. Who the fuck cares? When his name gets called, that's around the time I'll start to lose focus and get hungry. If it's way too high, I will freak out and break lanterns.

Most Likely to Score 50 One Night and Be Talking about It for the Next 40 Years: Tyrese Rice. Can choose shots as though he were a hot JR Smith, and for Rice, the planning can start from the moment he even considers getting out of bed. Of course, this means we don't expect too much else. If the Kentucky Tony Delk had been less accomplished, a little more insane, less of a real shooter, and slightly more streakier....

Ricky Rubio.

Most Likely to Get Red Lips Tattooed on His Neck: Terrence Williams. If Kenyon Martin was a wing player, he would be a lot like this.

Most Complex Prospect on the Right Way/New Jack Spectrum: Terrence Williams. Defense and rebounding like a Larry Brown creation, thought process of a Nellieball android.

Paints for Mirrors

Quote of the holiday day: "You bring me the yeti and I'll release your parents." Meatloaf said it, no less.

I knew there was a reason I was so thoroughly invested in Anthony Randolph. Besides being my last best hope for feeling like I'm touching the league's pulse, Randolph's also bringing it back to 2001 for the MSM. Check out these quotes from Bucher (bold all mine):

Sources also say rookie phenom Anthony Randolph, who some believe has the talent to one day be among the league's top 10 players, has been told he's not fitting in and could be dealt.

I guess FD is still more influential than I ever imagined. Are people really saying this? And if indeed it is front office folks, isn't the planet spinning backward if they're on my wavelength? Not that potential will ever completely disappear as a factor in assessing talent, but aren't things supposed to be getting more rational, economical, and here-and-now when it comes to team-building?

If you think I'm overreacting, how about this:

Yes, Randolph is 19 and plays with crazy rambunctiousness that results in silly fouls and ugly turnovers. But he also routinely makes plays -- blocked shots, crushing putback dunks and acrobatic drives -- that are beyond any other Warrior's capability. People within the organization talk about him the way they did Webber, as a singular talent capable of someday making the team a title contender. According to a half-dozen scouts and GMs, he has the potential to nudge out Derrick Rose as the best player in his draft class.



This is one of those "how serious is FD" moments. I would never say any of this with a straight face, because for now, Randolph's mystique is light years away from anything this concrete. I might be treading on the old "potentially potential" territory, but at this point, I think the real drama is seeing what kind of prospect Randolph develops into, not projecting what he might do as a refined NBA player. I'm especially attached to the kind of athlete who forces this kind of thinking. The charm, and the irony, of it is that you've got the fantastic doubling as the height of scouting acumen, the whimsical and the shrewd forced to pull in the same direction. But there's a big difference between venturing there selectively (less so if you're a half-serious blog) and applying it as a matter of course, as front offices once did; it's also bizarre to see it show up at all now, seeing how the climate has changed, the age limit has sobered everyone up, and there are so many embarrassing quotes on the record about past duds. I guess Anthony Randolph really is that fucking powerful.

Also, I was looking at my fantasy team and happened to click here. I have to say, if there's any single reason for me to be alienated from the NFL, it's the way running backs—my favorite position—currently rise and fall, or are platooned. Maybe my "I miss 2003" is nostalgia for the height of my interest in the NFL, but it also marks the exact point at which platoons and "RB's are finished at 30" started their ascent. It keeps real star power from gaining traction—T-Mac, injury-ravaged as he is, is still a viable star at 30 due to his playmaking ability; Kobe at near 31 is 1A or 1B in the league—but it cheapens the position itself, and what the individual's contribution to it means. Feel free to insert your favorite FD buzzword (style, personality, etc.) anywhere in the preceding graph.

Merry Christmas, and may you live like a slipping pitch.